The German election result barely counts as a win for the centre-right

There’s a lot going on in Germany’s election results. But the takeaway is simple: the government got punished, the far right surged, and nobody came out looking strong.

The CDU/CSU, led by Friedrich Merz, technically “won” with 28.5% of the vote. But that’s still one of their weakest results since the 1940s, and only a modest lift from 2021.

The AfD doubled their national vote share to 20.8% and came out on top in much of the former East, where they picked up an enormous 34% of the vote.

The SPD, led by Olaf Scholz, slumped to 16.4% - their lowest ever result, down more than nine points from the last election.

Digital tactics played a role. The AfD leaned heavily into TikTok and X. The SPD and CDU stuck with YouTube, Facebook and Instagram. That split isn’t just about platform choice. It reflects something deeper about risk appetite and audience instincts.

But the real story sits outside the tactics.

This was a referendum on failure. The electorate didn’t so much vote for something new as they voted out what they had. Scholz promised change in 2021. He didn’t deliver. And voters didn’t wait around.

That’s a warning to first-term governments everywhere. In Australia, New Zealand and the UK, leaders elected on a message of change should be paying close attention. Intentions aren’t enough. People want outcomes.

Turnout in Germany was the highest since reunification at an incredible 83%. People showed up. And while they didn’t agree on who should lead, they made it clear that what came before wasn’t working.

Now Merz faces a brutal coalition puzzle. A deal with the SPD or Greens might be the only path forward, but it won’t excite anyone and risks hollowing out the political centre even further.

The same forces that punished Scholz could be coming for Merz next. And if you’re in government and trailing in the polls, don’t assume you’ll get time to figure it out.

The electorate isn’t waiting.